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Prediction for CME (2023-08-30T22:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-08-30T22:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26678/-1
CME Note: Partial halo seen in SOHO with clearer fronts more to the South and the NE. Its source is possibly the eruption of a long filament from NE to SW and centered around N15W15 seen in AIA 193/304 starting 2023-08-30T20:30Z, with post-eruptive arcades and dimming extending towards SE and encompassing the disk center. No clear CME arrival observed. However, there may be a weak arrival combined with the high speed stream observed at L1 on 2023-09-01 or 02. The flux rope is possibly seen in the solar wind magnetic field components, accompanied by a drop in temperature, around 2023-09-02T18:00Z. Overall this is a weak arrival signature.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-02T16:11Z (-7.01h, +8.8h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/08/30 21:40Z
Plane of Sky 1: 02:30Z; 19Rsun; ENE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 05:20Z; 19Rsun; WSW Direction
POS Difference: 2:50
POS Midpoint: 03:55Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:15

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~10.64
Travel Time: ~10.64 * 6:15 = 66:31

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-09-02T16:11Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time: 10%

Lead Time: 50.70 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-08-31T13:29Z

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